Vision SMTX Appendix Adopted 2024

Economic & Planning Systems, Inc.

APPENDIX C: KEY FINDINGS FROM FISCAL IMPACT ANALYSIS

Fiscal Impact Inputs and Results

This chapter provides a summary of the development/growth inputs used to model both scenarios. In addition, the net fiscal impacts of each scenario and development in each Place Type are summarized. Development Inputs EPS developed a land demand forecast for both housing and employment uses in the community over the plan horizon (2020 to 2050). This analysis allocated forecast new jobs and households between four different housing product types and four employment development types. The number of new households and jobs within these development types were distributed among the future land use categories based on the land use intent of each category. Two land scenarios that were developed by MIG and EPS during the plan process were used. The two scenarios represent varying amounts of new jobs and households in each land use category and varying geographies. EPS estimated that there will be demand in the City of San Marcos for 52,000 new housing units by 2050 and 51,000 jobs generating demand for 14 million square feet of new nonresidential development. Table 10 provides a summary of the allocation of these new housing units and nonresidential development for each scenario. Table 9 provides a summary of the allocation of the new housing units and jobs by Place Type and Land Use Intensity for each scenario.

Table 9. Housing Unit and Job Allocation by Place Type

Existing Trends Scenario

Preferred Growth Scenario

New Persons Served

New Persons Served

Housing Units

Housing

Avg HH Size

Avg HH Size

Units Jobs

Description

Jobs

Place Type High Density Neighborhood Medium Density Neighborhood Lower Density Neighborhood Community Activity Center Neighborhood Commercial/Center Campus, Medium Density Employment

14,602 16,283 10,356 8,478

3,464 1.25 4,658 1.25 32 2.00 7,058 1.25 501 1.25

20,884

4,588

0 1.25 583 1.25 0 2.00

5,735 13,989 65,632 7,651 19,317 18,267 65

27,557 10,816 18,018 32,816

16,278 1,136 16,914 12,362

2,994 4,857 1.25

605

0

80 1.25

1,675 19,012 1.25 0 16,272 1.25

787 22,781 1.25 0 22,698 1.25

Highway Commercial, Lower Density Employment

Total

52,000 51,000

113,148 52,000 51,000

130,654

Land Use Intensity High Denstiy

14,602

3,464

20,884

4,588

0

5,735 33,306 83,898 7,715

Mediium Density

17,958 23,670 10,356 16,304

44,470 11,603 23,364 30,380 32,816 22,698

Low Density Mixed Use

9,083

7,559

17,414

2,994 4,937

Source: Economic & Planning Systems

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SAN MARCOS COMPREHENSIVE PLAN 2024